NFL Wild Card Predictions

The post-season is upon us. During the season, I made multiple predictions on playoff seeding and game outcomes. My most recent seed predictions were fairly accurate for the AFC, only missing on the 6th seed. I was much more off for the NFC, where I swapped Minnesota and Green Bay, and missed again on St. Louis. Now we will get into the details of each game.

Each of the four wild card games this weekend is a rematch of at least one regular season game, which can be a guide to predicting the rematch winners, but not necessarily. For the NFC games, both feature matchups between division rivals and in which one team swept the other in the two regular season matchups.

Onto this week.

Vikings @ Packers
I'm not one to put undue faith in stats. Stats rarely tell the whole story. Therefore, let's look at some recent stats. The Packers have win the last three matchups with Minnesota. The Vikings have lost 20 of their last 21 games outdoors, though it should be noted the one win was at Lambeau last season. In the last matchup between the two teams on Christmas Eve, the Packer defense did a very good job stopping the Viking offense in the second half, allowing the offense only one field goal. The Vikings are 3-7 in their last ten games, whereas the Packers are 8-2 over their last ten. The Vikings are 1-4 in their last five games, and the one win was by a point due to a botched extra point attempt. The Vikings are having some personnel issues in the locker room this week, thanks to Randy Moss' most recent outburst of immaturity. None of this bodes well for the Vikings. Prediction: Packers.

Rams @ Seahawks
Seattle never really recovered from their fourth quarter collapse against the Rams in Week 5. They finished fairly well, with a two game winning streak, including a win over the second seeded Falcons (who rested their starters for much of the game) in the season finale. But neither game was impressive. The Rams also finished with a two game winning streak, against the Eagle second string and the Jets. I am not a big fan of the Rams, but the Seahawks are just too inconsistent. Few of their wins have been impressive. The Rams have the experience of being in the post-season, and have swept the Seahawks this year, something which I'm sure is in the back of every Seattle player's mind. Prediction: Rams.

Broncos @ Colts
For the second year in a row, the Colts open the playoffs hosting Denver, in a rematch of a late December regular season game. Denver won last year in the regular season, and in last week's finale, and both by impressive margins. But the Colts destroyed the Broncos in the playoffs last year. Denver has the weapons to be a dangerous team in the playoffs, but like Seattle, they are far too inconsistent. Jake Plummer set a franchise single season passing record and tied the franchise touchdown pass record, but also threw 20 interceptions. Now, sometimes high touchdown numbers go hand in hand with high interception numbers. Kurt Warner in 2001 led the league in both categories, and his team went to the Super Bowl. The difference was that Warner's interceptions did not cost his team games, whereas Plummer's have. On paper, this matchup would seem to favor Denver. Both teams have powerful running games and powerful passing games. But the Broncos have the better defense (4th in the league, versus Indy's 29th ranked D). But that defense has been burned by other top offenses, e.g. the Chiefs three weeks ago. And in terms of points scored, the Broncos have less than a three point per game advantage over Indianapolis (19.0 for Denver, 21.9 for the Colts). That's really the only stat that matters, and the Broncos advantage is not large, and far less than the Colts' 8.8 point advantage in points scored (32.6 for Indy, 23.8 for Denver). Prediction: Colts.

Jets @ Chargers
This is the only game this weekend without a lot of recent history between the two teams. The Jets won the matchup in San Diego in Week 2. But that was back when Charger fans were still booing the team and Drew Brees was barely hanging onto a job. A lot has changed since then. The Chargers have developed into one of the dominant teams in the AFC, with an explosive offense and an improving defense. The Jets have had a good season (they are in the playoffs after all), but have not looked good against better opponents. In the six games they have played against teams in this year's playoffs, they have only won against the Chargers and Seahawks, and the Charger win deserves an asterisk because of where San Diego was then. The Jets do have several things going for them. They have the league's leading rusher in Curtis Martin and a defense that is tied for second fewest points allowed. But their passing game has been unimpressive overall, and they have lost three of their last four games. The Chargers have won three of their last four, and in fact nine of their last 10. Only the Colts have stopped them, and that by a mere field goal in a game they probably should have won. The Chargers will destroy the Jets. Prediction: Chargers.

Regular Season: 158-98
Playoffs: 0-0